Ponente
Descripción
In this presentation, we introduce a spatially explicit model for Aedes aegypti population dynamics that links mosquito abundance to urban morphology and climate. The framework is based on a system of partial differential equations whose coefficients vary in space according to urban forms (e.g., parks, streets, housing, and water bodies) and in time according to temperature and precipitation. Urban forms are inferred through an automated pipeline that combines the Google Maps API with color-based image segmentation. Climate-dependent terms are calibrated using biologically constrained probability distributions, reducing the number of free parameters while preserving known physiological limits. Validation against two years of entomological surveillance data shows that the model reproduces observed growth trends (quantified via the Pearson correlation coefficient), and the calibration procedure supports transfer to multiple cities by accounting for local microclimates.